In 2010, Timaru spent $14,599 on food. The next year: $15,309. Then $15,343 in 2012. By 2013, it was $15,445. A steady climb, the kind you'd expect from a regional town keeping pace with the country.

Then 2014 arrived. And Timaru's food spending dropped to $7,836.

Not a dip. Not a correction. A 49% collapse in twelve months. (Source: Stats NZ, food-price-index-detailed)

This wasn't inflation. These are nominal figures, the actual dollars spent. Something structural changed in how Timaru's food spending was measured or categorised in 2014, and the shift was so sharp it tells you this wasn't about people suddenly eating half as much.

Walk backwards through those years and you see the moment South Canterbury's economy was still riding high. In 2010, the Global Financial Crisis was two years past. Timaru, with its port and dairy processing, was holding steady. Food spending tracked upward because the town was growing, wages were rising, and households had money to spend.

By 2011 and 2012, spending plateaued but stayed strong. Christchurch, just 160km north, was rebuilding after the earthquakes. Some of that work flowed south. The numbers stayed above $15,000.

Then 2013: a slight uptick to $15,445. That year, Fonterra's botulism scare rattled dairy confidence across the country. But Timaru, with Silver Fern Farms and Alliance Group plants employing thousands, kept its footing. The food spending held.

What happened in 2014? The data doesn't explain itself. But context matters: Stats NZ periodically revises how it categorises regional spending, especially in smaller centres. A reclassification, a boundary change, a shift in how household surveys capture rural versus urban spending could all produce a number like this.

What the timeline shows is this: Timaru's food economy looked one way for four straight years. Then it looked completely different. And if you weren't watching the data year by year, you'd never know the rupture happened.

The lesson isn't about what Timaru residents ate in 2014. It's about how regional data can mask dramatic methodological shifts. When a number halves overnight, it's not the economy. It's the measurement.

But here's what remains true: in the four years before the break, Timaru's food spending rose by just $846. Less than 6%. Across those same years, national food prices climbed faster. Even before 2014's drop, Timaru households weren't keeping pace with inflation. The town's food economy was already under quiet pressure.

And after 2014? The data trail goes cold in this set. We don't know if spending recovered, adjusted, or stayed flat. What we know is that for four years, one pattern held. Then it shattered. And the only people who noticed were the ones reading the spreadsheets.