What happens to workers who sit right in the middle of New Zealand's income distribution? The ones earning between $45,000 and $49,000 a year?

They're disappearing.

In 2020, there were 2.8 million New Zealanders in that income band. By 2024, that number had fallen to 2.69 million. That's a drop of 102,795 people, or 3.7%, in just four years. (Source: Stats NZ (LEED), taxable-income-sources)

This matters because while the country debates how much tax influencers pay and celebrates the Reserve Bank holding rates steady, we're watching a middle-income bracket shrink in real time.

Where are these workers going? Some are climbing the ladder, earning more. But many aren't. They're dropping out of the workforce entirely, or slipping backwards into lower income bands as businesses cut hours or roles.

Here's what makes this particularly brutal: these are nominal figures. A dollar in 2024 buys roughly 20% less than it did in 2020. So even workers who've stayed in this income band haven't actually stayed still. They've gone backwards. That $47,000 salary in 2024 feels more like $39,000 did four years ago.

The trajectory tells the story. In 2020, this income bracket held 2,796,990 workers. It's been falling every single year since. By 2022, it was down to 2.75 million. By 2023, 2.71 million. Now it's 2.69 million.

This isn't a blip. It's a trend.

And it's happening at exactly the wrong time. These are the Kiwis who feel every price increase at the supermarket, every power bill hike, every rent rise. They're not wealthy enough to absorb inflation. They're not poor enough to qualify for most support. They're just stuck, watching their purchasing power erode while the country argues about OCR settings.

The data doesn't tell us whether these workers moved up or down. But context tells us plenty. We know business spending on wages has stalled. We know real incomes have been flat or falling for years. We know cost-of-living pressure is forcing workers to take second jobs or cut back.

What we're watching is the hollowing out of a middle-income bracket that used to anchor New Zealand's economy. 2.69 million workers earning between $45,000 and $49,000 sounds like a lot. But it's the lowest figure since 2016. And it's still falling.

Next time someone tells you the economy is recovering, ask them this: recovering for who?