Here's a question that sounds backwards: What if your grocery bill going up slower than inflation is actually bad news?

Families in rural North Island. everywhere from Gisborne to Northland to Taranaki. spent $15,443 on food in 2024. That's $2,828 more than they spent in 2020, when the number sat at $12,615. A 22% jump in four years. (Source: Stats NZ, food-price-index-regional)

But here's the twist: inflation over that same period ran at 20-25%. Which means in real terms, adjusted for what money can actually buy, these families are spending slightly less on food than they did before COVID.

That should be good news. Except it's not.

Because there are only two ways your real food spending falls while nominal spending climbs: either you're buying less food, or you're buying cheaper food. Neither signals a family doing better.

Look at the year-on-year pattern. In 2023, the number hit $15,362. In 2024, it barely moved. just $81 higher. That's a 0.5% increase in a year when general inflation was running at several percentage points. Something changed. Families tapped the brakes.

This is what economic pressure looks like in the data. Not dramatic collapse. Just families quietly adjusting. Switching from fresh to frozen. From name brands to budget. From three types of fruit to one. Making $15,443 stretch further by accepting less.

The dataset goes back 25 years, and the recent trajectory stands out. Between 2020 and 2022, spending jumped $1,377 in two years as food prices spiked. Then it climbed another $1,370 between 2022 and 2023. But 2024? Almost flat.

That flatline isn't families winning against inflation. It's families running out of room to absorb more cost increases.

And these are nominal figures. the actual dollars families hand over at the checkout. The psychological weight of $297 a week on groceries hits harder than any inflation adjustment can soften. That's $297 that can't go toward power bills, car repairs, or school fees. That's $297 every seven days, whether wages kept pace or not.

Regional New Zealand often gets left out of cost-of-living debates. The focus goes to Auckland's rents, Wellington's commutes. But rural North Island families face the same grocery inflation with fewer alternatives. No competition driving prices down. No bulk discount warehouses around the corner. Just one New World or Countdown, and whatever's on the shelf at the price they set.

So when you see food spending barely rise in 2024 after four years of rapid growth, don't assume families found relief. Assume they found their limit. The number that doesn't move tells you more than the one that does.