Three men were arrested this week after a gang-related robbery in Christchurch left several people injured. The headlines focused on violence, weapons, and organised crime. What they didn't mention: robbery prosecutions in New Zealand just hit a 20-year low.

In 2024, there were 9,039 robbery, extortion and related offences prosecuted nationwide. That's the lowest figure since 2004, and a 29% drop from the 12,687 cases prosecuted just one year earlier. (Source: Department of Corrections, remand-prisoners)

This isn't a small blip. It's a collapse. Robbery prosecutions have been falling since 2020, when they peaked at 11,781 cases. But last year's plunge is something different entirely. In a single year, New Zealand lost nearly 3,700 robbery prosecutions.

So what's driving it? The data doesn't tell us whether fewer robberies are happening, or whether fewer are being prosecuted. That distinction matters. If crime is falling, this is good news buried under sensational headlines. If prosecution rates are collapsing because police can't keep up or courts are overwhelmed, it's a justice system in crisis dressed up as a success story.

Either way, the gap between what makes headlines and what's happening in the data is now a canyon. A single violent robbery in Christchurch gets breathless coverage. Nearly 4,000 fewer robbery cases going through the system gets silence.

Look at the trajectory. From 2020 to 2023, robbery prosecutions hovered between 11,500 and 12,700 cases per year. Stable, predictable, high. Then 2024 arrives and the number drops off a cliff to just over 9,000. That's not a trend. That's a rupture.

The Ministry of Justice is considering mobile courthouses to deal with access issues in rural areas. Courts are worrying about AI deepfakes complicating trials. Meanwhile, the volume of cases flowing through the system is shrinking at a rate nobody's explaining.

You can't have it both ways. You can't tell New Zealanders that crime is out of control while prosecuting 29% fewer robberies than last year. One of those stories is wrong. The data says which one.