In 2022, New Zealand's Youth Court dealt with 72 homicide and related offences. That was the lowest figure in a quarter-century. Politicians pointed to falling youth crime. Police talked about early intervention working. Then something broke.

By 2023, the number had jumped to 120. By 2024, it hit 246. That's more than triple the 2022 figure. It's the highest level since 1997, when the dataset begins. (Source: Stats NZ, youth-court-orders)

This isn't a gradual climb. This is a system watching something spiral and failing to catch it. In 2020, there were 159 homicide-related orders. In 2021, it dropped to 126. In 2022, it plummeted to 72. For a brief moment, it looked like youth violence was in retreat.

Then it wasn't. The 2023 jump to 120 should have been the warning sign. Instead, 2024 more than doubled it again.

These aren't convictions. They're court orders, which include supervision, community work, and residential placements. They represent the Youth Court's response to the most serious category of offending: homicide and related charges like manslaughter, attempted murder, and accessory after the fact.

What changed between 2022 and 2024? The data doesn't say. But the trajectory is unmistakable. Whatever interventions were working in 2021 and 2022 either stopped working or stopped happening.

Compare this to other Youth Court categories. Drug offences rose 15% between 2023 and 2024. Sexual assault and related offences climbed from 1,086 to 1,164. Those are concerning. But homicide-related orders didn't rise 15%. They rose 105%.

This is the number that should be driving policy debates. Not anecdotes. Not isolated incidents that make headlines. This: a 27-year high in the most serious form of youth offending, reached after the lowest point in a generation.

The 2022 figure of 72 now looks like an anomaly, not a trend. The question isn't why 2024 was so bad. It's what happened in 2022 that made it so good, and why nobody seems to have noticed when it vanished.