In 2004, 9,123 people sat in remand cells waiting to face robbery, extortion, or related charges. Then the number climbed. And climbed. By 2023, it peaked at 12,687: the highest level in two decades.

Then something happened. In 2024, the number fell to 9,039. That's a 29% drop in twelve months. (Source: Stats NZ, remand-prisoners)

To find a comparable figure, you have to go back 20 years. The question is: what shifted?

Start in 2020. COVID lockdowns hit. Robbery remand numbers sat at 11,571. The justice system slowed. Courts backed up. People waited longer in cells before trial. By 2021, the figure nudged up to 11,781.

Then came 2022. The backlog worsened. Remand numbers held steady at 11,541. Courts were processing cases, but new ones kept arriving. The system couldn't catch up.

2023 was the breaking point. Remand numbers for robbery offences surged to 12,687. That's 3,116 more people than in 2004. The highest count in the dataset. Politicians talked tough on crime. The public heard stories about ram raids, aggravated robberies, repeat offenders. The data seemed to back the narrative.

But 2024 tells a different story. The number didn't inch down. It collapsed. From 12,687 to 9,039. Nearly 3,650 fewer people sitting in remand cells for robbery-related charges.

What explains the fall? Courts could be moving faster. Fewer people might be offending. Police could be charging differently. Bail laws might have shifted. Or prosecutors could be resolving cases before they reach remand. The dataset doesn't tell you which. It just shows the result.

What it does show is this: robbery remand numbers are now lower than any year since 2005. Lower than 2010. Lower than 2015. Lower than the start of the pandemic. If you're using remand data to argue crime is spiralling out of control, you're looking at the wrong year.

The trajectory matters. 2020 to 2023 was a steady climb. Four years of rising numbers. Then one year erased most of that increase. If the trend holds, 2025 could take remand numbers even lower. If it reverses, we're back where we started.

But right now, the data says this: whatever drove robbery remand numbers to a 20-year high in 2023 stopped working in 2024. The question is whether anyone noticed.