Between 2020 and 2024, the annual cost of food in Auckland rose by $4,906. But here's the tension: most of that damage happened in years two and three. (Source: Stats NZ, food-price-index-regional)

In 2021, prices jumped $374. In 2022, they surged by $1,062. In 2023, another $1,273. Then in 2024, the increase slowed to just $197.

That looks like good news. Prices are still rising, but at least they're rising slower. Except here's what that misses: the baseline is now so high that "slower" still means unaffordable.

A family paying $12,647 for groceries in 2020 is now paying $15,553. That's an extra $2,906 a year, or $56 a week. For a household on the median income, that's nearly two weeks of after-tax earnings just to cover the food bill increase.

The contrast matters because it shows how inflationary shocks work. Prices spike fast, then stabilise at the new, higher level. Your grocery bill doesn't go back down. It just stops climbing as aggressively.

Look at the five-year arc. In 2020, Auckland households spent $12,647 on food. By 2022, that had jumped to $14,083. By 2024, it hit $15,553. Each year locks in the gains of the previous one.

This is why "inflation is slowing" feels hollow to most families. Yes, the rate of increase has dropped. But you're still paying 23% more than you were four years ago, and wages haven't kept pace.

The 2024 slowdown tells you monetary policy is working. Interest rates squeezed demand. Businesses stopped raising prices as aggressively. But it doesn't undo the previous three years.

For renters, this is particularly brutal. Rents rose sharply over the same period. Power bills climbed. Insurance premiums jumped. Every cost that spiked in 2021-2023 is now locked in at the higher level, and your income hasn't caught up.

The data shows two realities at once. One: the worst of the price surge is over. Two: the cost of living is now permanently higher, and nothing in this dataset suggests prices will fall back to 2020 levels.

That $197 increase in 2024 is the smallest jump in four years. But it's still an increase. And it's stacked on top of the $1,273 increase the year before, and the $1,062 increase the year before that.

This is what a cost-of-living crisis looks like after the crisis: not a collapse, just a permanently elevated baseline that most households can't afford.