In 2020, feeding a Wellington household cost $12,357 a year. By 2024, that figure hit $15,246. But here's the number that matters: last year's increase was just $226. (Source: Stats NZ, food-price-index-regional)

That's the smallest year-on-year jump since the pandemic started. And it marks a turning point in a cost-of-living crisis that defined the past four years.

Between 2020 and 2021, Wellington's annual grocery bill rose by $316. Not terrible. But then 2022 arrived, and inflation hit the supermarket aisles like a freight train. That year alone, food costs surged by $1,007. Families suddenly found themselves spending nearly a thousand dollars more just to eat the same meals.

The pain continued into 2023. Another $1,340 added to the annual bill. By the end of that year, Wellington households were paying $15,020 for groceries. That's $2,663 more than three years earlier. The cumulative weight of those increases squeezed budgets, forced trade-offs, and sent more people to food banks.

Then something changed. The 2024 increase slowed to $226. It's still an increase, which means prices didn't fall. But the rate of acceleration finally eased. For the first time since COVID, the grocery bill didn't leap by four figures.

This matters because cost-of-living isn't just about today's price. It's about the trajectory. When costs rise $1,340 in a single year, households can't adjust. Savings vanish. Debt accumulates. But when the rise drops to $226, people can start to breathe again. They can plan. They can rebuild.

Still, nobody's celebrating. Wellington families are now spending $2,889 more on groceries than they were in 2020. That's an extra $55 a week, every week, just to keep the fridge stocked. And while the rate of increase has slowed, the absolute cost remains painfully high.

The data suggests we've passed the worst of the grocery inflation storm. But we're not back where we started. We're in a new normal, where $15,246 a year is just what food costs now. The question is whether wages have caught up, or whether families are still making do with less.