Here's a number that doesn't make sense at first glance: New Zealand recorded 7 million superannuation payments in 2024. (Source: Stats NZ, taxable-income-sources)

But we're a nation of 5.2 million people. Even if every single person over 65 was collecting super, that's only about 900,000 Kiwis. So where are the other 6.1 million payments going?

The answer isn't fraud or a database error. It's how the tax system counts. Every fortnight, when a superannuitant gets paid, that's recorded as a separate taxable income event. Two payments a month, 26 payments a year. Multiply that by roughly 870,000 people currently receiving NZ Super, and you get close to 22 million payment records annually.

But that's not what Stats NZ is measuring here. This 7 million figure represents something different: the number of unique tax records where superannuation appeared as an income source during the year. That includes people who received it for part of the year, people who earned other income alongside it, people who died partway through, people who moved overseas.

What makes this interesting isn't the accounting. It's the trajectory. In 2020, this number was 6.3 million. Four years later, it's grown by nearly 750,000 records. That's not population growth. That's the baby boom generation crossing the 65-year threshold faster than younger Kiwis are entering the workforce to pay for it.

Every year since 2000, this number has climbed. Not by the same amount. Not at the same rate. But it has never gone down. In 2000, Stats NZ recorded 4.1 million superannuation income records. By 2010, it was 5.1 million. By 2020, 6.3 million. Now, 7 million.

Here's what that means in plain terms: the number of tax records involving superannuation has grown by 70% in 24 years. During that same period, New Zealand's total population grew by about 30%. We're not just getting older. We're getting older faster than we're growing.

The cost of NZ Super currently sits at around $18 billion a year. Treasury projects it'll hit $30 billion by 2035. That's before accounting for inflation, before accounting for the next wave of boomers turning 65, before accounting for longer life expectancies.

Every political party has a plan to deal with this. Raise the age. Means-test it. Increase immigration. Boost productivity. Tax wealth. None of them want to say the quiet part out loud: the promise we made in the 1970s is mathematically impossible to keep without someone paying significantly more or receiving significantly less.

The 7 million figure isn't just a data point. It's a countdown. Every year it ticks higher, the bill gets bigger, and the number of workers left to pay it gets proportionally smaller. We can see it coming. We've been watching it come for 24 years. And we're still arguing about whether to do anything about it.