New Zealand just gained 300,000 people in their early forties. In 2020, there were 2.57 million Kiwis aged 40-44. Today, there are 2.89 million. (Source: Stats NZ, taxable-income-sources)

Here's the tension: this is the age when earnings typically peak. Research shows most workers hit their highest salary somewhere between 40 and 50. After that, wages plateau or decline. You're either in the career you'll retire from, or scrambling to change course before it's too late.

And right now, nearly three million New Zealanders are in that window simultaneously.

The numbers have been climbing steadily: 2.6 million in 2021, 2.65 million in 2022, 2.75 million in 2023. Then a jump to 2.89 million this year. That's a 12% increase in just four years.

These aren't new immigrants flooding in. This is demographics. The tail end of Gen X and the oldest Millennials, all hitting their forties at once. All facing the same question: did I make the right calls in my thirties?

Because here's what the data doesn't show: how many of these 2.9 million people are actually seeing their peak earning years materialise. How many took career risks that paid off. How many are stuck in roles they settled for a decade ago, watching younger colleagues leapfrog them.

The economy matters here. When 300,000 extra workers reach their supposed peak earning phase during a cost-of-living crisis and a flat jobs market, something has to give. Either employers pay up to retain experienced workers, or those workers discover their peak earning years arrived quietly and left without fanfare.

This bulge in the 40-44 bracket isn't temporary. In five years, they'll all be 45-49, still in their prime working years, still expecting to be at or near their career ceiling. Then 50-54. The demographic wave doesn't stop; it just moves up the age brackets, applying pressure as it goes.

The contrast is stark: New Zealand has never had this many people simultaneously navigating the career phase that's supposed to be their financial prime. And they're doing it in an economy where wage growth has barely outpaced inflation, where job security feels increasingly fragile, where the gap between those who made it and those who didn't is widening.

If you're 42 right now, you're in the largest cohort of 40-somethings this country has ever seen. The data can't tell you if you're winning or losing that race. But it can tell you this: you're running it with more people than ever before.