Auckland's annual food bill hit $15,553 in 2024. That's up $197 from 2023. (Source: Stats NZ, food-price-index-regional)

The year before, it jumped $1,273. The year before that, $1,062. And in 2022, the biggest single-year leap in recent history: $2,906.

This is what economists mean when they say inflation is cooling. The rate of increase is slowing. Food costs are still climbing, just not at the pace that defined 2021 and 2022. That two-year period added nearly $3,500 to Auckland's grocery bill. Last year added barely more than pocket change by comparison.

But here's the tension: slower increases don't mean lower prices. Auckland families are still paying $15,553 a year for food. That's $1,296 a month. It's 23% higher than it was in 2020, when the annual bill sat at $12,647.

The damage from those brutal COVID-era years is permanent. Prices don't reverse. They just stop climbing as fast. And $197 still means higher costs, not stability.

Look at the trajectory over five decades. In 1975, when this dataset begins, Auckland's food bill would have been a fraction of today's figure. The long-term trend has always been upward. But the acceleration from 2020 to 2023 was exceptional. Food costs jumped 21% in three years. That's the kind of spike that reshapes household budgets permanently.

Now the pace has eased. The $197 increase in 2024 is the smallest year-on-year jump since at least 2020, possibly longer. If this trend holds, Auckland's food bill might hit $15,750 in 2025. That's still growth, but it's manageable growth.

The question is whether households can adjust. Three years of brutal increases drained savings, forced trade-offs, pushed people toward cheaper brands and smaller portions. The financial habits formed during that period don't disappear just because the rate of increase slows.

And $1,296 a month is still $1,296 a month. For a family on the median Auckland household income, that's a significant chunk of the budget. For renters already stretched thin by housing costs, it's the difference between getting ahead and falling further behind.

The Reserve Bank's inflation target is 1-3% annually. Food price growth in Auckland has been well outside that band for years. Last year's $197 increase represents roughly 1.3% growth. That's finally back within the target range. But it doesn't undo the damage of the previous three years.

The slowdown is real. But so is the new baseline. Auckland's food costs aren't returning to 2020 levels. They're just not climbing as fast anymore.