As the government announces homeless move-on orders targeting visible disorder in town centres, the numbers tell a different story about young people and lawbreaking. Youth court orders for traffic and vehicle offences just hit their lowest point in a generation.

In 2020, courts issued 387 orders to young people for traffic violations. Four years later, that number sat at 189. It's been cut in half (Source: Stats NZ, youth-court-orders).

To understand how dramatic that drop is, you need to look back. In 1992, when this dataset begins, courts handed down 669 traffic orders to youth offenders. The number bounced around through the 1990s and early 2000s, hitting peaks above 800 in some years. By 2010, it had settled around 500.

Then something changed. Between 2010 and 2020, the figure fell to 387. Not a collapse, but a steady decline. What happened next was the collapse: from 387 in 2020 to 246 in 2021. COVID played a role. Fewer cars on the road, fewer opportunities for teenage drivers to rack up offences, fewer court appearances as the justice system adjusted to lockdowns.

But here's the part that doesn't fit the COVID story: the number didn't bounce back. In 2022 and 2023, youth traffic offences stabilised at 321. Still well below the pre-pandemic level. Then in 2024, they dropped again to 189.

This isn't a blip. This is a 32-year low in a dataset that goes back to whenMillhouse was still on The Simpsons every week. Whatever is driving this, it predates the current government and contradicts the narrative that youth disorder is spiralling.

Traffic offences are a specific slice of youth crime, true. But they're also one of the most common ways teenagers interact with the justice system. Driving without a licence, dangerous driving, vehicle theft. These are the offences that historically filled youth court dockets.

The timing matters. Right now, politicians are responding to public anxiety about crime with visible enforcement measures. Move-on orders. Tougher rhetoric. The implication: young people are out of control and the system is too soft.

The data shows the opposite. Fewer young people are ending up in court for vehicle offences than at any point since this country started counting. That doesn't mean youth crime has vanished. It means the specific type of offending that used to dominate youth courts has collapsed, and nobody's talking about it.

In 1992, nearly 700 young people faced court orders for traffic violations. In 2024, it was 189. That's a 72% drop over three decades. The last four years alone account for half of it.

You can debate why: better driver education, stricter licensing, fewer teenagers getting cars, changes in how police and courts handle young offenders. But you can't debate the number. Youth traffic offending has fallen off a cliff while the political conversation moved the other way.