A 16-year-old charged with a sexual offence in 2024 entered a Youth Court system that looks radically different from the one a decade ago. They were one of just 351 young people facing such charges last year, down from 429 in 2023. It's the lowest number in 25 years.

The drop matters because it happened while politicians were announcing expanded move-on orders and media coverage focused on police retreating from hostile crowds at car meets. The narrative around youth crime is dominated by disorder and violence. But the Youth Court data tells a different story about one of the most serious categories of offending. (Source: Stats NZ, youth-court-orders)

Sexual assault and related offences peaked in 2020 at 489 charges. Over the next four years, they fell 28%. Last year's 18% drop was the sharpest decline since 2013.

This isn't a story about a single-year blip. The 32-year dataset shows a clear pattern: after spiking during the early 2000s (reaching 517 in 2001), these charges trended downward through the 2010s, climbed again around COVID, then collapsed to pre-2000 levels.

What changed? The data doesn't say. But the timing overlaps with shifts in how police and social services respond to youth offending, particularly around diversion programmes and restorative justice. It also coincides with declining birth rates, meaning fewer young people in the system overall.

The contrast with public discourse is stark. Youth crime dominates headlines and policy announcements. Move-on orders are being rolled out nationwide. Yet in this category of serious offending, the trend is unmistakably downward.

Compare 2024's 351 charges to 2014's 536. That's a 35% reduction over a decade. Compare it to 2001's peak of 517, and you're looking at a 32% drop over 23 years, even after the COVID-era spike.

This doesn't mean sexual violence by young people has disappeared. Every one of those 351 charges represents harm. But if you're crafting youth justice policy based on the assumption that things are getting worse across the board, this dataset says otherwise.

The Youth Court system is processing fewer sexual assault cases than at any point since the late 1990s. That fact should matter as much as the car meet in Taranaki or the new powers to move people on. One story fits the narrative about youth disorder. The other doesn't. Both are true.