A family in Christchurch spent roughly $294 on groceries this week. Last year at this time, they spent about $289. The difference: $4.63. (Source: Stats NZ, food-price-index-regional)

RNZ reports households are putting spending on ice as bills soar. But here's what the South Island grocery data actually shows: the annual increase from 2023 to 2024 was $241, or 1.6%. That's the smallest jump since 2021, when the cost-of-living crisis was just beginning to bite.

Compare that to the previous year. Between 2022 and 2023, South Island grocery bills climbed $1,329. That's five and a half times faster than the 2024 increase. The year before that? Another $969 jump. Households got hammered for two straight years. Then, suddenly, the pressure eased.

This isn't about prices falling. A South Island household still spends $15,305 a year on groceries now, compared to $12,509 in 2020. That's a 22% increase in four years. The groceries didn't get cheaper; they just stopped getting more expensive quite so fast.

So why does it still feel like everything costs too much? Because wages didn't keep pace with those brutal 2022 and 2023 increases. By the time grocery price growth slowed in 2024, families were already stretched. A $241 annual increase feels manageable on paper. But when you're still paying off the damage from the previous two years, an extra $5 a week still stings.

The South Island's 1.6% growth rate in 2024 sits well below the national trend. Auckland households saw a 1.3% increase. The rest of the South Island? Just 1.2%. Wellington, by contrast, jumped 2.8%. Regional differences matter here. A family in Invercargill isn't feeling the same squeeze as one in the capital.

Here's the disconnect: interest rates are falling, inflation is cooling, and grocery price growth has slowed to its lowest point in three years. But households aren't spending. They're holding back. Not because this year's grocery bill jumped dramatically, but because the cumulative weight of four years of increases left them with no room to breathe.

The cost-of-living crisis didn't end in 2024. It just stopped accelerating quite so fast. For a South Island family staring at a $15,305 annual grocery bill, that's not the same thing as relief.